Jun 30, 20234 min read

Rural Population Dynamics ‑ Texas Style

Summary: The major moan in Parker County, and especially east Parker County, is the loss of rural lifestyle. Get used to it. Population growth in Parker County is being driven by in-immigration* and predicted to continue; our growth is contributed to growth in Fort Worth*, Tarrant County and DFW and to the access to water, from wells and from Fort Worth Water System. Get the stats from an OpEd, Rural Texas by Economist Dr. M. Ray Perryman.

Latest Update: Monday, 19 June, 2023

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Rural Population Dynamics ‑ Texas Style

"Fort Worth gained the highest sheer number of new residents of any city in the country in 2022; Texas cities again lead population growth; Texas again smashes three jobs records in April."

What's Driving Population Change in Texas Counties 2021-22, Texas Demographic Center

The major moan in Parker County, and especially east Parker County, is the loss of rural lifestyle. Get used to it. Population growth in Parker County is being driven by in-migration* and predicted to continue; our growth is contributed to growth in Fort Worth*, Tarrant County and DFW and to the access to water, from wells and from Fort Worth Water System.

Texas economist Dr Perryman has the statistics on growth in Rural Texas. (Note: Willow Park Civics is not associated in any way with Perryman; we just found his analysis interesting in context of the growth of Willow Park and Parker County.)

Rural Texas

Opinion by Economist Dr. M. Ray Perryman

"The very mention of "Texas" conjures vivid images of wide-open spaces, gushers, cattle drives, cotton fields, and other stuff of legends. Despite this enduring legacy, a growing majority of population and economic activity is concentrated in metropolitan areas. Nonetheless, the rural parts of the state are generating a notable component of overall growth and, in the process, providing much of the fuel, food, and fiber that sustains us. Let's focus on my roots and this key segment of Texas.

"A Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) is a county or group of counties with at least one urban center with a population of 50,000 or more. Adjacent counties with economic ties to the central area are also included. In Texas, 80 of 254 counties are in MSAs. They represent less than 20% of the land area, but about 88% of output, 92% of employment, and 90% of population. [2020 State-based Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas Maps > Texas in .pdf]

"Rural counties are expanding, but not at the torrid pace of the state as a whole. Over the past 20 years, rural population increased by 9.4%, compared to 38.3% across all of Texas. Rural employment rose by 18.8%, much slower than the 44.4% overall.

"We are projecting that the growth gap will persist but narrow substantially over the coming two decades. Our forecast calls for population gains of 18.1% in rural counties through 2043, notably slower than the Texas increase of 30.1%, but not as dramatically lower as recently observed. For employment, we anticipate an increase of 25.6% for rural jobs, compared to 33.4% for the state. (Of course, some counties may be reclassified as sprawl persists.)

"Although agriculture immediately comes to mind, this sector accounts for relatively few jobs. Most people are working in health care, education, retail, food services, public administration, manufacturing, construction, and other segments. The crops and livestock they produce, however, are an important part of our export base and vital to economic wellbeing.

"Of particular note is the concentration of jobs in oil and gas extraction, which isn't surprising given that most of the Permian Basin, Eagle Ford, and other plays are in rural areas. In fact, labor productivity in rural areas is significantly higher than elsewhere. Between oil and gas (where enormous value is created with a few people) and agriculture (where one farmer and a sophisticated tractor can work wonders), that pattern will persist. Rural regions also boast major concentrations of renewable energy and outdoor recreation opportunities.

Population and employment expansion has been and will continue to be concentrated in metropolitan areas. While rural counties face many notable challenges going forward, they will continue to expand and support key elements of Texas production and exports - not to mention defining much of our heritage and identity."