Summary: Even though ONCOR "is predicting a drier and warmer" 2024/5 Winter, ERCOT says “You can have a warm winter in Texas and have a cold extreme, and that’s becoming more frequent." But ERCOT says they are ready for all winter weather -- even though an on-demand backup program has been cancelled.
Latest Update: 29 December 2024
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ERCOT says TX electric grid is ready for predicted extreme cold, even though TPUC cancelled an on-demand program.
Even though ONCOR, who delivers electricity to Parker County, "is predicting a drier and warmer" 2024/5 Winter [1], ERCOT, the who manages the Texas electric grid, says “You can have a warm winter in Texas and have a cold extreme, and that’s becoming more frequent... Five of the last eight winters, we’ve had temperatures that met those thresholds.” [2, 4]
ERCOT quickly added, "conditions this winter could spark extreme cold, but additional power supply and continued weatherization efforts will lower the risk of power outages," [2, 4] even though the Texas Public Utility Commission cancelled a "marginal" program to incentivize "companies to build more of what are known as dispatchable power facilities. Dispatchable power sources, such as natural gas, nuclear and coal-fired plants, can turn on any time." [3]
Willow Park Civics Sources and Resources
[1] Oncor’s Meteorologist says drier, warmer trend for 2024-25 Winter Forecast. Willow Park Civics Blog, posted 30 December 2024
ONCOR is predicting a drier and warmer 2024 - 2025 Winter because of a predicted La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. "The emergence of La Niña this winter appears to have had an effect on NOAA’s seasonal outlooks, with both warmer and drier conditions expected for Texas." Details in linked blog.
[2] Grid operator says Texas is better prepared for extreme cold this winter, The Texas Tribune, 03 December 2024
ERCOT says conditions this winter could spark extreme cold, but additional power supply and continued weatherization efforts will lower the risk of power outages. Texas’ grid operator warned that the state should prepare for extreme cold this winter but said the state’s main power grid is better equipped than in previous years to withstand a powerful winter storm.
Texas’ grid operator warned that the state should prepare for extreme cold this winter but said the state’s main power grid is better equipped than in previous years to withstand a powerful winter storm.
At a board meeting on Tuesday, officials from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said that while winter presented a greater risk of outages, new power generation added to the grid in the past year has lowered the probability that extreme cold will trigger emergency conditions.
ERCOT meteorologist Chris Coleman’s forecast predicted above normal temperatures this winter, but a “greater-than-average” chance of extreme cold events.
Extreme cold events have occurred more frequently in recent years, he said, despite abnormally warm temperatures overall in Texas.
“You can have a warm winter in Texas and have a cold extreme, and that’s becoming more frequent,” he said. “Five of the last eight winters, we’ve had temperatures that met those thresholds.”
Coleman’s forecast said ocean temperatures, atmospheric patterns, soil moisture and other measures this year closely resemble those of 2021. In February 2021, Winter Storm Uri brought days of freezing temperatures that crashed the state’s grid, knocked out power and heat to millions of Texans and led to nearly 250 deaths.
[3] Texas regulators shelve an electricity market reform proposal they say does too little to shore up grid, The Texas Tribune, 19 December 2024
The Public Utility Commission found that the performance credit mechanism, a financial tool the Legislature capped at $1 billion, would only marginally improve reliability of the state power grid.
[4] ERCOT's winter outlook: Slightly riskier grid with a strong chance of extreme cold, NBC_DFW, 03 December 2024
ERCOT officials say they expect an overall warm winter in 2025, punctured by an extreme cold event-- and we're heading into it with a slightly higher grid reliability risk compared to last winter.
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