Summary: ERCOT, Texas’ main electrical grid operator, has forecast that the state’s growing demand for power could surpass its available energy supply beginning in summer 2026. Although there are skeptics about ERCOT's prediction, the Texas Administration and the 89th Texas Legislature have been propelled to action.
• Latest Update: 20 February, 2025
ERCOT's latest projections show potential problems for Texas power grid by 2027.
ERCOT, Texas’ main electrical grid operator, has forecast that the state’s growing demand for power could surpass its available energy supply beginning in summer 2026. [1]
However, "some experts are skeptical the grid would see as much demand growth as ERCOT predicts, and other ERCOT models showed things getting tight but not tipping into a deficit." [1]
Several of the ERCOT "potential problems" are based on the effectiveness of strategic predicting and planning. (Remember, "Man plans. God laughs.")
For example,
• "A change to the methodology for characterizing the availability of Inverter Based Resources (wind and solar) to reflect their anticipated reliability benefits during the hours with the greatest risk of capacity reserve shortages" [2]
• ERCOT "sharply increased its prediction for how much power demand will grow in the coming years after the state Legislature passed a law in 2023 changing how ERCOT forecasts demand. [1]
• And ERCOT based their projected warning on the most dire scenarios. “But it’s important to note that all scenarios in this report have a certain level of uncertainty that can alter the long-term resource adequacy outcomes, and these forecasts will change over time based on a variety of factors.” [1]
However, more realistic and more documented challenges are not in the distant future but based on actual gowth and tactical planning.
• Both residential and commercial growth is execrating at an exponential rate. [2]
• The addition of new forecasted loads are dominated by large consumers such as data centers, industrial/oil & gas production facilities, large industry, cryptocurrency mining operations. [2]
Nevertheless, ERCOT is projecting an 8% shortfall in its energy production by 2027, which is propelling the Texas Administration and the 89th Texas Legislature to act.
• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, who leads the Texas Senate, has been criticizing crypto-miners, AI data centers for potential strain on Texas power grid. [3]
• Texas is fortifying its power grid to avert potential energy crises, as announced by Governor Greg Abbott during the Texas Electricity Policy Summit 2025 held in Houston. [4]
• Senate bill 6 would require those companies to conduct a study of their impact on the grid and be prepared to use back-up generators during energy emergencies. [3]
Willow Park Civics is collecting additional articles on energy in Texas [Power to the People. Energy, Electricity, Gas Index] and more specifically on energy legialation in the 89th Texas Legislature [Energy. 89th TX Legislative Session, 2025 TBD]
Willow Park Sources and Resources
[1] Texas’ energy demand may exceed supply in 2026, but experts caution against panic, The Texas Tribune, 13 February 2025, Excerpts
Some experts are skeptical the grid would see as much demand growth as ERCOT predicts, and other ERCOT models showed things getting tight but not tipping into a deficit.
Texas’ main grid operator on Thursday forecast that the state’s growing demand for power could surpass its available energy supply beginning in summer 2026.
In a report outlining potential supply and demand over the next five years, the Electric Reliability Council of Texas said it’s possible that the grid would not have enough power to meet peak demand during the summer and winter seasons starting next year.
But that was the most dire of the scenarios that ERCOT outlined. Others show that supply would be tight but stay just ahead of demand. And some experts cautioned that the assumptions ERCOT used were flawed and more pessimistic than what’s likely to happen.
The parameters in the report “better represent the performance of grid resources and the dynamic nature of the ERCOT grid,” ERCOT said in releasing the report. “But it’s important to note that all scenarios in this report have a certain level of uncertainty that can alter the long-term resource adequacy outcomes, and these forecasts will change over time based on a variety of factors.”
ERCOT estimates that demand for power will nearly double by 2030, largely due to population growth, more extreme weather and the increase of large users such as crypto mines, data centers and electrifying oil and gas operations.
The grid operator sharply increased its prediction for how much power demand will grow in the coming years after the state Legislature passed a law in 2023 changing how ERCOT forecasts demand.
[2] Report on the Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) in the ERCOT Region, 2025-2029 Revised, ERCOT, 13 February 2025, Excerpts
One scenario in this CDR indicates that Planning Reserve Margins for 2025 through 2029 decrease significantly from year to year, and cross over to negative values in 2026 or 2027 depending on the season. The summer Margins for the peak Net Load hours are lower than for the peak Load hours due mainly to decreasing solar generation availability in the early evening when loads are still high. The decreases are mainly due to:
The addition of new forecasted loads reported by Transmission Service Providers (TSPs), dominated by large consumers such as data centers, industrial/oil & gas production facilities, and cryptocurrency mining operations.
A change to the methodology for characterizing the availability of Inverter Based Resources (wind and solar) to reflect their anticipated reliability benefits during the hours with the greatest risk of capacity reserve shortages. (Some of the decreased wind and solar availability is offset by battery energy storage availability that is included in the Reserve Margin calculations for the first time.)
Including new eligibility criteria for including planned resources in the Planning Reserve Margin to more accurately account for project delay trends.
[3] ERCOT's latest projections show potential problems for Texas power grid by 2027, TexasFOX 7, 13 February 2025, Excerpts
The newest report from the Electric Reliability Council of Texas outlines potential issues with the state's power reserves as early as 2027.
• ERCOT is projecting an 8% shortfall in its energy production by 2027. The projection states large industry, cryptocurrency mining and large data centers.
• Senate bill 6 would require those companies to conduct a study of their impact on the grid and be prepared to use back-up generators during energy emergencies.
• Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick criticizes crypto-miners, AI data centers for potential strain on Texas power grid.
[4] Texas Seeks to boost power grid, Texas Economic Development Corporation 12 February 2025, Excerpts
Texas is fortifying its power grid to avert potential energy crises, as announced by Governor Greg Abbott during the Texas Electricity Policy Summit held in Houston. With the state’s population surging, its economy booming, and following the state’s second-hottest summer on record, the demand for reliable and affordable electricity has never been greater.
• Oncor’s Meteorologist says drier, warmer trend for 2024-25 Winter Forecast. Willow Park Civics Blog, posted 30 December 2024
ONCOR is predicting a drier and warmer 2024 - 2025 Winter because of a predicted La Niña in the Pacific Ocean. "The emergence of La Niña this winter appears to have had an effect on NOAA’s seasonal outlooks, with both warmer and drier conditions expected for Texas." Details in linked blog.
• Grid operator says Texas is better prepared for extreme cold this winter, The Texas Tribune, 03 December 2024
ERCOT says conditions this winter could spark extreme cold, but additional power supply and continued weatherization efforts will lower the risk of power outages. Texas’ grid operator warned that the state should prepare for extreme cold this winter but said the state’s main power grid is better equipped than in previous years to withstand a powerful winter storm.
• Texas regulators shelve an electricity market reform proposal they say does too little to shore up grid, The Texas Tribune, 19 December 2024
The Public Utility Commission found that the performance credit mechanism, a financial tool the Legislature capped at $1 billion, would only marginally improve reliability of the state power grid.
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