Summary: [Considering the current weather, this prediction seems ironic.] NOAA is predicting a dryer and warmer winter for Texas caused by ongoing La Niña. This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard.
Latest Update: Saturday, 12 November, 2022
Tags: #Electricity
[Three additional articles below.]
Drought to persist in Great Plains, parts of West NOAA
NOAA
20 October 2022
Excerpts
This year La Niña returns for the third consecutive winter, driving warmer-than-average temperatures for the Southwest and along the Gulf Coast and eastern seaboard, according to NOAA’s U.S. Winter Outlook. Starting in December 2022 through February 2023, NOAA predicts drier-than-average conditions across the South
What Is La Niña?, NOAA SciJinks
La Niña is a weather pattern that occurs in the Pacific Ocean. In this pattern, strong winds blow warm water at the ocean’s surface from South America to Indonesia. As the warm water moves west, cold water from the deep rises to the surface near the coast of South America. La Niña weather patterns can cause drier than average years in some regions of the United States. In those same regions, El Niño weather patterns can cause wetter than average years.
NOAA forecasters, in collaboration with the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), continue to monitor extreme, ongoing drought conditions that have persisted in the Western U.S. since late 2020, as well as parts of the central U.S. where historic low-water conditions are currently present.
“Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country, but parts of the Western U.S and southern Great Plains will continue to be the hardest hit this winter,” said Jon Gottschalck, chief, Operational Prediction Branch, NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center. “With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast.”
• 2022 Texas winter forecast: NOAA releases winter weather predictions, Beaumont Enterprise, 21 October, 2022, Excerpts
The influence of La Niña, a weather pattern that causes the water in the eastern Pacific Ocean to be colder than usual, is expected to continue for the third winter in a row, resulting in warmer temperatures and fewer rain chances, NOAA said.
The drier conditions could further worsen the drought that has already impacted Texas since summer, NWS forecasters predicted.
"Drought conditions are now present across approximately 59% of the country," said Jon Gottschalck, Chief of the Operational Prediction Branch at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, via a press release. "With the La Niña climate pattern still in place, drought conditions may also expand to the Gulf Coast."
• Electric Power Markets, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, Excerpts
Weather: Higher than average temperatures are expected for the coming winter in many regions of the country, which should translate into reduced natural gas and electric demand. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts for December 2022 through February 2023 suggest a 50% to 80% likelihood of higher-than-average temperatures in Southern California, the Desert Southwest, Texas, and the Eastern Seaboard, with lower-than-average temperatures expected for the Northwest and the West North Central regions. Forecasts of above-average temperatures imply lower-than-average electric and natural gas demand, although a prolonged cold weather event nevertheless could cause disruptions and price impacts, even within the context of a warmer winter.
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