Summary: Publicly, ERCOT is "expecting" to be able to meet electricity needs this Winter. However, as ERCOT hopes for the best, we should plan for the worst. A failed Fall attempt for more reliable energy online, and predictions for a colder January and February should send Willow Park residents into preparation mode.
Latest Update: Monday 18 December, 2023
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Be prepared for the cold shoulder from our Texas Energy Provider, ERCOT. Their Plan: Hope.
Publicly, ERCOT is "expecting" to be able to meet electricity needs this Winter. However, the following articles suggest, as ERCOT hopes for the best, we should plan for the worst.
Last Summer's threatened brownouts, unprecidented population growth in metro areas of Texas, a failed Fall attempt to bring more reliable energy online, and predictions for a colder January and February should send Willow Park residents into preparation mode.
• Natural gas expansion project to add more reliable energy to Texas grid, The Center Square, 14 December 2023
• Texas grid faces winter after failed attempt to get more power online, The Texas Tribune, 01 December 2023
Industry experts continue to argue over whether the electricity market in Texas needs to change to make the grid more reliable in winter and summer.
After saying there was an “unacceptable” risk of a power grid emergency during a strong winter storm, the Texas grid operator's plan to prepare the state better for extreme winter weather failed to take off this fall.
• Texas grid seeks more power capacity to avoid winter shortages, Reuters, 03 October 2023
• ERCOT: Item 7: Notice of Additional Capacity Request for Winter 2023-2024 Load Season, 17 October 2023
Key Takeaways
– ERCOT is proactively seeking to procure up to 3,000 MW of additional generation and/or Demand response capacity for the winter 2023-24 Peak Load Season.
– The RFP is driven by significant peak Load growth since last winter; recent and proposed retirements of dispatchable Resources; and the low-probability, but high-impact risk of extreme winter weather.
– ERCOT is not projecting emergency conditions this winter. However, analysis of Winter-Storm-Elliott-like weather plus Load growth from this year indicated a ~20% risk of an Energy Emergency Alert (EEA) event. Procuring 3,000 MW lowers the risk of EEA 1 to a “low” level (<10%).
• Texas gained more people than any other state in the last year, The Texas Tribune, 19 December 2023
Texas grew by nearly half a million people in the past year, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. But it was South Carolina that led the nation with its rate of population growth.
For the upcoming winter season, the ERCOT Region will face reserve shortage risks during high net load hours. In winter, peak demands typically occur before sunrise and after sunset, when solar generation is not available to serve those peaks (except for a negligible amount), making the system dependent on wind generation and dispatchable Resource availability to serve the peak demands. The risk is greater than last winter due primarily to robust load growth along with insufficient new dispatchable Resources to fully serve the higher net peak loads. The ERCOT Region has also experienced a large increase in the number of thermal units that are planned to be indefinitely mothballed by the start of the 2023-24 winter Peak Load Season or will operate under a summer-only availability schedule. There are currently 15 units expected to be out of service, representing a loss of 1,283 MW of winter-rated capacity.
• ERCOT> Winter Weather Readiness Index
• ERCOT > Winter 2023
Based on expected weather conditions, ERCOT anticipates there will be sufficient generation to meet customer demand this winter. ERCOT will continue to deploy all available tools to manage the grid reliably and coordinate closely with the Public Utility Commission, generation resource owners and transmission utilities to ensure they are also prepared.
• "Big Cold Weather Pattern Change" Forecasted For Eastern US, OilPrice, 15 December 2023
The weather blog Severe Weather Europe provides an in-depth analysis of "cold anomalies across much of the central, southern, and eastern United States" after the start of the new year.
• A strong Jet Stream will take over December, but Winter is now forecast to arrive in the United States as we head into 2024, 14 December 2023
Winter 2023/2024 has begun in a very dynamic way. Currently, we have a strong train of pressure waves across the Pacific and into North America. That will evolve into a strong low-pressure system, driving a powerful jet stream and warmer air over the United States, just to be replaced in early 2024 by a big cold weather pattern change.
The NOAA 8-14 day temperature outlook sums up this forecast period for the United States. Warmer than normal weather is predicted over much of the country, leading into the final week of December.
A strong jet stream also brings a lot of moisture from the ocean into the United States. In the NOAA precipitation forecast below for the same period, you can see much above-normal precipitation over the western and southern parts of the United States.
In the January temperature forecast, you can see the cold air anomaly over the central Plains, upper Midwest, and much of the eastern United States.